c. Automatic devices installed in the premises for detection of fire. Tip Having dealt with catastrophic losses caused by fires, flooding, hurricanes, earthquakes, and many other factors, CEERISK engineers are able to develop EML/PML models that will accurately assess the exposure to risks across different industriesincluding banking, hospitals, refineries, power generation, heavy industries, and construction projects. 8 Gerathewohl, K. (1983). At least three different approaches to PML exist: Commercial insurance underwriters use probable maximum loss calculations to estimate the highest maximum claim that a business most likely will file, versus what it could file, for damages resulting from a catastrophic event. Solutions isnt just a motto. For example, since 1926, there have been only three calendar years in which the S&P 500's total return was worse than -30%. The larger the building, the less likely the entire property will be destroyed; and the better the fire protection (sprinklers, alarms and public protection) the more likely a fire will be contained and extinguished . The Maximum Probable Loss Methodology sets out the method that can be used to calculate the maximum probable loss that might occur due to certain space activities. (2006). Therefore for this risk the overall PML will be 80% (Tk 8 crore out of TSI of, If the twobuildings are not 50 feet apart, then PML should be calculated at 100%. The Probable Maximum Loss (PML) is defined as the Scenario Expected Loss (SEL) based on the 475-year probabilistic seismic ground motion as reported in the 2010 USGS seismic hazard database. For example, for fires, these could include the proximity to a fire station, alarms, and sprinklers. Take into consideration risk mitigating factors that can prevent damage or loss, such as proximity to a fire station, alarms, and sprinklers. Definition of Estimated Maximum Loss. Historically, the PML is based on a deterministic analysis, using an event on the controlling fault for a site having a magnitude that is not expected to occur more than about once in every . MFL (maximum foreseeable loss) designates the damage if the safeguards put in place to protect against major events fail to do their job. But insurance company followed a conservative approach and considered PML as 100%. It can also include building materials; buildings made of wood are more susceptible to fire. We use analytics cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Risk pooling To illustrate the variation in terminology and methodology the insurers exposure to fire is used as an example here. Heres what you should know if youre interested in what probable maximum loss means and how its calculated. If the methods are compared in a simple matrix, the differences become clear. It is a conservative method of calculating probable maximum loss. 3 API (2008). Along the way, the term probable maximum loss (or PML) came into use, but had many different definitions based on the risk tolerance of various lenders and owners. Furthermore, the model contains the assumption that any private or public assistance is delayed and at least two connecting fire areas are open. 2019 Net Average Earnings Calculator (XLS) WSIB determines the Net Average Earnings (NAE) that takes into account the probable income tax payable by a worker on his or her . An analysis of the source of errors leads to the following classification of errors. (2007). Multiply the property valuation by the highest expected loss percentage to calculate the probable maximum loss. 11 Hashemi, S. J., et al. The probable maximum loss (PML) is the absolute maximum loss that an insurance company can be expected to incur on any given insurance policy. 800.419.4923 phone The parameter Fire Protection Systems entails all technological measures expected to mitigate the growth of the fire, including fire-resisting doors, the presence and degree of function of the installation of fire detection, and fire extinguishing systems. This is the difference between the expected loss and risk mitigating factors. The following variables are taken into consideration while calculating probable maximum loss (PML): property value, risk factors, and risk mitigating variables. The maximum probable loss is the largest loss that an insurance policyholder can expect to experience if a certain event occurred, such as a fire. Insurers know that some policies will incur losses but most policies will not. hbbd```b``q] i? D2ovz`5 `, 2023 Leaf Group Ltd. / Leaf Group Media, All Rights Reserved. 3.1 Portfolio loss exceedance probability curves. In some nonlife insurance branches the probable maximum loss is of great importance for judging a given risk or a given collective of risks. The next step is taking the factors that are risk-mitigating into account. These studies, also known as Probable Maximum Loss (PML) assessments are compliant with ASTM E2026-07 and ASTM 2557-07. hb```f``2,K@90iR(yTtrzY]V2>+ {Y1)@ Question 3 Expected number of accidents Expected total claims cost per event Expected probability of losses X Value LOSS 25 R 100 900 0.15 25*100 900 = R2 522 500 35 R 130 203 0.25 35*130 203 = R4 The scope of our analysis includes: For more information or to contact one of our experts please call us on +44 (0)2086141444, Expert View on Defects and Failures in PV Modules, Partial Collapse of Steel Structure at Cement Plant In South of Riyadh, Water Infrastructure System Risk Assessment in GCC, Fire in a Supermarket in Oxfordshire, England, Fire in Engine Compartment of Construction Loader in United Kingdom, Television Broadcast Interrupted After Cable Fault, Risk Assessment to Supplier of Foods in GCC and Mediterranean Area, Contamination of Raw Materials for Pharmaceuticals, Damage Assessment and Reinstatement of Cement Plant Following Fire, Risk Assessment of Resin Production Plant in KSA, Metallurgical analysis of Turbine Blade Failure in Desalination Plant in Saudi Arabia, Well only use this information to handle your enquiry and we wont share it with any third parties. Casualty Actuarial Society: Is Probable Maximum Loss (PML) A Useful Concept? Instead, these studies require a comprehensive understanding of real-life conditions that impact the size of the loss. Using 25% of the PMP will give slightly less runoff in your hydrograph than 25% of the PMF. Similar to Probable Maximum Loss, it is assumed that neither any fire protection systems, nor firefighting measures are effective, and the fire is only contained by structural separation. Subbasin areas. PML is the maximum percentage of risk that could be subject to a loss at a given point in time. 4 Arunraj, N. S. and J. Maiti (2009). Insurers can use the Estimated Maximum Loss figures that they have to determine a worst case scenario, and then set their rating accordingly for this overall class of business. Clients depend on us for specialized industry expertise. What does MPL mean in insurance? The resulting peak discharge will be the 25% PMF. For example, an analysis might determine that risk mitigation decreases the chance of a total loss by 21 percent. Fire Services vehicles arriving at the scene of fire in good time. Multiply the property valuation by the highest expected loss percentage to calculate the probable maximum loss. The PML is usually expressed in terms of dollar value or as a percentage of the building's value. Retrieved 10.10.2021, 2021, from https://abi.bcis.co.uk/about_building_insurance/about.aspx. Summary. Other entities, recognizing the need to limit seismic risk while remaining competitive also adopted "PML" policies which were less defined. Step 3: Consider risk mitigation factors that can prevent damage or loss. Evaluating the reinstatement options and the cost required to return a property to its pre-loss condition. Sum insured = 100 . Probable maximum loss is expressed in dollars or as a percentage of total values. endstream endobj 182 0 obj <> endobj 183 0 obj <> endobj 184 0 obj <>stream The competitive nature of the industry and an unwillingness to share detailed information about exposure models make an accurate presentation of tools and comparison of methods challenging. On endstream endobj 185 0 obj <>stream A. I. P. R. W. P. (2017). . Relatively few suggestions on detailed parameters determining the loss of profits due to reputational damage, changes in market share, and further highly complex market behavioural effects can be found in the literature. For more details see our Privacy Policy. However, PML can also be expressed as a percentage of the total value of the insured property. The maximum probable loss from an investment is the maximum percentage of risk that can be subject to a major loss at any given time. Redefining Probable Maximum Loss. F. Reichelt. Approach #1: The maximum percentage of risk that could be subject to a loss at a given point in time, Approach #2: The maximum amount of loss that an insurer could handle in a particular area before being insolvent, Approach #3: The total loss that the insurer would expect to incur on a specific policy. Risks associated with flooding include the business site, such as whether you are in a documented flood plain, construction materials and storage policies. Standards should be carefully reviewed to fully understand the work to be completed as well as the limitations of reports. This is usually lower than the maximum foreseeable loss, the potential damage if such safeguards fail. The Probable Maximum Loss report identifies the PML value, expressed as a percentage of the building's replacement cost and estimates the potential damage during a 475-year earthquake - the lower the percentage, the lower the expected damage. On This Page. Unit hydrograph, loss rate, and base flow parameters for each subbasin. Otherwise, add real property and business personal property to reach the valuation. Understanding Probable Maximum Loss (PML), Fire Insurance: Definition, Elements, How It Works, and Example, Consequential Loss: Definition, Insurance, Vs. (2014). For insurers, the probable maximum loss is an important aspect. 15 McGuiness, J. S. (1969). 11 Things (2023) You Need to Know. Calculate expected ground motion and related hazard 5. How is it calculated ? This is possible as two factors are known, the premium income and the Estimated aximum that they may have to pay on claims. 16 Pula, R., et al. They review the past loss experience for similar perils along with any industry information or demographic and geographic risk profiles. Email: MediaInquiry@partneresi.com. "Loss functions and their applications in process safety assessment." 1. 276 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<918D93BAC3187608F05BFA059DB7E1CC><6EB53D7191B37A4AB10AA4377C07844C>]/Index[246 71]/Info 245 0 R/Length 136/Prev 422038/Root 247 0 R/Size 317/Type/XRef/W[1 3 1]>>stream 1. For example, risks associated with a fire include combustible construction materials, clutter, flammable liquids or other substances used to operate or maintain your business, and distance to the nearest fire station. The possibility that a fire may spread beyond the complex in which it starts depends on a list of characteristics or events, including the risk of consequential damage resulting from corrosive gases of vapours, risk of explosion and cases of simultaneous arson in several complexes. In the main, it . the catchment of a dam to calculate the probable maximum flood (PMF). There are several steps in calculating PML: The example above is a simplified version and the more risk mitigating factors that a property has, the further the probable maximum loss will be reduced. SBC is getting new Managing Director Syed Belal Hossain, Reinsurers credit rating requirement in Bangladesh, Functions and responsibilities of Surveyors and Loss Assessors, Insurance fraud Implications for insurance companies, MSc Insurance and Sustainable Risk Management. 2. II, VVW GmbH. hXF}bD)^:X~Y{8TK,/bwO8d:u^A~{j`X?x8H&6aa.dVNwX4Hu; n_FwlSSmY'(Rb"m"|j${_~UezI5;VqsNN6] eI9,(X wmaj1D"J'l&T8*`. Calculation of Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) (in bold). 611 Industrial Way W. Eatontown, NJ 07724, Partner is your source for understanding the science of real estate.. The results in Table 1 were analyzed using an individuals control chart. Surface streams that lose water directly to mine openings and to the shallow groundwater systems . iEoc{eM8P[-{_BV|fL:ksVqY$e&NJ94L:?UR8 I_''`HNgf)UeN4e``t M``TRR+o`tMK QD2@ 4RzJ&@ L@60 @N@`H :HAkJ &%yRZ`cB?X&,qia-l@K!Ji,L Expe`IY'``20 Smoke Detector etc. Please be sure to consult a legal or financial professional before making any investment decisions. 310.615.4500phone, East Coast Headquarters This is under the assumption that there is no failure of existing safeguards. b. These findings reflect three important trends. View select projects highlighting Partners services. The definition resulting in the highest damage is Catastrophic Loss, an estimate of the loss that will occur at a site as a result of the following types of events: However, even those events do not include sabotage, natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes, or falling aircraft. Direct Loss, Uninsurable Risk: Definition and Examples. 19 Ronken, L. (2020) Avoiding Underinsurance Why an Accurate Sum Insured Is Vital (but Often Neglected). Probable Maximum Loss is the other most used concept with EML. Reinsurance, Principles and Practice Vol. 20 Rose, A. and C. K. Huyck (2016). Uninsurable risk is a condition that poses an unknowable or unacceptable risk of loss or a situation in which insuring would be against the law. Analyzing the Disconnect Between the Reinsurance Submission and Global Underwriters' Needs Property Per Risk, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. You can decline analytics cookies and navigate our website, however cookies must be consented to and enabled prior to using the FreshBooks platform. C. Normal loss expectancy. The expected loss percentage is the difference between the risk-mitigating factors and the expected loss. 0 The probable maximum loss (PML) is the absolute maximum loss that an insurance company can be expected to incur on any given insurance policy. "Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study." You have to master the analytical ability to assess based on the survey report findings. The most moderate definition is the Normal Loss Expectancy, which is the largest loss that is to be expected from a site, excluding all catastrophic events. Catastrophes and rare coincidences that are believed to be unlikely are excluded in the model. Well take a look in our handy guide. PML is the maximum amount of loss that an insurer could handle in a particular area before being. (2014). Probable maximum loss tends to be lower than the maximum foreseeable loss. Maximum possible loss. Underwriter Joe, in measuring a shoe store's potential loss severity calculated what the expected loss would be under routine and anticipated operating conditions. 246 0 obj <> endobj Necessary cookies will remain enabled to provide core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility. CEERISK engineers apply their extensive experience in loss consulting to develop models that can be applied by (re)insurers to understand the extent of the exposure. Multiply the property valuation by the highest expected loss percentage to calculate the probable maximum loss. Step 2: Define the risk factors that prompt an event and lead to damage or loss of the property. 3. A consequential loss is an insurance term for an income hit caused by a business's inability to use damaged property or equipment as usual. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. However, exposure is versatile, challenging to quantify, and often subject to individual subjective assessment. Engineers who understand your business isnt just a motto. These near-term models reflect a five-year outlook, providing probable maximum loss estimates using projections of expected hurricane activity in the upcoming near-term period. The X chart is shown in Figure 1. Insurers employ a variety of models and data to assess the risk involved in a policys underwriting, including the likely maximum loss (PML). Partner is ready to help you with your career. But what exactly is PML? For example, if the property valuation is $500,000 and you determine that fire risk mitigation reduces expected losses by 20 percent, probable maximum loss for a fire is $500,000 multiplied by .80 or $400,000. The first of these two definitions is pertinent to the insured and his risk . The loss estimations are based on a variety of different information, including geo-information, empirical loss data, site visits by engineers and publicly available and private data; yet, to simplify the understanding loss estimation can in general terms be broken down to multiplying the sum to be insured by a percentage damage factor. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. To determine the premium, insurers look at historical loss data for comparable risks, demographic and regional risk profiles, and data from the entire industry. The final step is multiplying the value of the property by the expected loss percentage. Please note that this calculation is apparently based on the premise that despite all fire fighting facilities available/installed, sayin a factory, they just fail to work or become non-operational or inactive at the time of fire for whatever reason. Contrary to the modelling of property damage and related loss, modelling of business interruption and loss of profits lag far behind. "Guidelines on Business Interruption." Although underwriters use complex statistical formulas and frequency distribution charts, the concepts involved are not difficult to understand. b. The probable maximum loss (PML) is lower the more risk mitigating factors there are. Probable Maximum Loss. McGuinness (18, p. 3), defines PML as that propor-tion of the total value of an exposure unit which will equal or exceed, with a stated probability, the actual amount of an individual loss . The probable maximum loss is regarded as the worst-case scenario for whoever the insurer is. What that means is that you would . The probable maximum loss (PML) represents the worst-case scenario for an insurer, provided that there is no failure of existing safeguards, such as fire sprinklers or flood barriers. Your Trusted Source for risk management and insurance . A. n. L. (1974). If you already have business property insurance, this is the amount of insurance coverage. Erika is a former Affordable Housing Director for the City of New York turned full-time Land Investor. Estimated Maximum Loss. Association of British Insurers (ABI) has made the following recommendationswith regard to calculation of Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) and Probable Maximum Loss (PML). For example, calculations of probable maximum loss (PML), which is the probable cost of repairing . 18 ROA, R. O. And thats when the probable maximum loss comes into play. BE!TPu(4*]r"$|^W03|w$mg}U)VnV In the present paper, the author gives a general mathematical definition and a new practicable calculation method for the probable maximum loss. Try It Free for 30 Days. 2 Ahlert, R. C. (2000). 14 IFoA / CAS, I. a. F. o. The assessment studies the proximity of faults within the geographic location of a subject property, expected possible strength, type of construction, physical setting of the property and geological conditions to render an . Correct estimation of financial exposure is crucial for the determination of premium and insurance coverage. 4`Y&EL,5kT43Gg!x!e MB]{-DdNDl:KY>>QFE+NE'+q%[LJNLeczvt$Ud537[_/UVtr`vFR3ySi|!XCI|. (2015). Objective uncertainty factors are based on technological advancements and on the lack of guarantee in fire development and its confinement to one complex. Gathering sufficient information in order to assess the methods and processes used in a given risk. Probable Maximum Loss (PML) is defined as the damage to the building that has a specified probability of being exceeded within a given period from ground shaking as a result of seismic activity. PML values are expressed as percentage of building replacement cost in current dollar values, and do not include losses resulting from damaged building . Cession refers to the portions of obligations in an insurance company's policy portfolio that are transferred to a reinsurer. It assumes that there is no failure of existing safeguards like fire sprinklers (in the event of a fire) or flood barriers (in the event of a flood). Similarly to the PML and MCL, the Maximum Amount Subject also assumes the containment of fire solely through structural separation. Probable Maximum Loss After the term EML, the second most commonly used term is Probable Maximum Loss (PML). Find out more. The PML value can be expressed either as the Scenario Expected Loss (SEL) or the Scenario Upper Loss (SUL). Modeling Snowmelt. . More than ever, making the most of your capital means solving a complex risk-and-return equation. For example, if the property has fire insurance, it is the maximum loss expected at a given location in the event of a fire there. Here are the basic steps: 1. Learn how coverage works. Applying the Interpolated Grid Option within the Meteorologic Model. [R1o;N*q~a>-NuzYzW({UNAkZb1dD75mG)z[bB4u^31w)C,XRD.I.D!1R:eiB!OBSkRa h&4R34B2p,?qig%9B7bv?>Ojso4?8v$^*&jy[W lK&c=h#DA1-ny !Tqp[jxB.TBN A$X)gnWv4%!IKHB:\Z6R{7eB"x-z??EWBb.Uv"6'=~)p*oTI[=QqON5onak-,mm*1^lnRe4fbxE8YKEZa^pP RZ I It must keep this in mind, so it has enough money to pay out on claims. The Probable Maximum Loss The Probable Maximum Loss is a term long used in the storied history of insurance but ironically a term that better fits the modern era of modeling. Step 5: Multiply the property value by the expected loss percentage. The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)" is the flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in. You will then need to perform a risk analysis to figure out the likelihood that the risk-mitigating factors will reduce the probability of such an event occurring. Choose the maximum loss you are willing to take to your portfolio. In the case of an NLE scenario, all available protective measures function as they should and a fire or explosion is extinguished or controlled by public or private firefighting, as well as structural separation. $-E@"D R.L~m@C9 v?9 g`lxty+f- H Generally, the industry finds orientation in a definition of EML proposed in the early seventies by the then-called Reinsurance Offices Association (ROA) in London, developed as a standard for reinsurance. PML = 100%. It is important to understand how organizations can foster resilience, yet still, be efficient and competitive in their respective markets. The probably maximum loss is an estimate of the maximum loss that can be sustained by the insurer on a single risk. "Risk-based operational performance analysis using loss functions." In this case, the damage will be limited to 10 percent of the insured value of the property. Probable maximum loss refers to the maximum loss that an insurer would be expected to incur on a policy. You then need to determine the risk factors that are most likely to cause an event that would lead to the loss or damage of the property. Applying Baseflow Methods in HEC-HMS. Probable maximum loss. What Does Homeowners Insurance Cover and Not Cover? For example, an insurance firm may estimate that insuring a house would cost $300,000 if it were completely damaged. The dollar amount of loss xis often called the Occurrence Probable Maximum Loss (PML) at return period r, or simply the PML for the return period r. Thus, 1=r= O(x) = O(PML occ) (9) Notes on Using Property Catastrophe Model Results Casualty Actuarial Society E-Forum, Spring 2017-Volume 2 4. or PML Conduct a risk analysis to estimate the degree to which risk mitigation factors decrease the chance a catastrophic event will demolish your business. Let us say there are 2 units of buildings (Building No. 23 Yohn, A. Probable maximum loss is a term used in both the insurance and commercial real estate industries to designate the value of the largest loss that could result from a disaster. EML is similar to PML; however, it may rule out remote coincidences, so it tends to be slightly lower than PML. Copyright 2023 WTW. This information can be used as a starting point in negotiating favorable commercial insurance rates. 2. Automatic Sprinkler System installed in the premises. Center for Chemical Process Safety, American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE), New York, NY,(1999,) 320 Pages,[ISBN No. New ASTM Standards for PMLs. 10 Hashemi, S. J., et al. Essentially, it describes the expected maximum damage and losses to a site. The largest container ships in comparison Munich Re more Special features of mobile risks How to calculate Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) and Probable Maximum Loss (PML). PML analytic assessments, as well as the amount of reinsurance ceded on a risk, often influence underwriting decisions. (2010). "Probabilistic modeling of business interruption and reputational losses for process facilities." Below mentioned is the calculation for pricing: Building cost = 100 Million INR. Third, business interruption is a continuous challenge that, unlike property damage, does not necessarily get fixed by repair or replacement of the damage. Based in Green Bay, Wisc., Jackie Lohrey has been writing professionally since 2009. Read the fullWhite Paper here. A better and quantified understanding of risk will benefit policyholders boardroom decisions of risk mitigation and risk transfer under uncertainty. Determine the risk factors that are likely to cause an event that would lead to damage or loss of the property. Divide your personal portfolio maximum loss by your assumed stock market probable maximum loss. In the case of calculation of estimated maximum loss, sudden catastrophic loss or Act of God is not taken into consideration. 193 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<668B9ADDBC525F90490573BA77453037><8BF83E9B5346E742B5D38824260BDA34>]/Index[181 29]/Info 180 0 R/Length 72/Prev 238820/Root 182 0 R/Size 210/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream B. Chichester, England;Hoboken, N.J;, Wiley. However, insurers will know that most of their insurance policies will never have any significant claim. During the early years of its use, VaR was often confused with probable maximum loss (PML); however, it is not the maximal or most probable extreme loss. A typical figure estimated in relation to an insurers financial exposure is estimated losses in different scenarios. "About Buildings Insurance." Also, consider elements in your emergency action plan that address emergency reporting procedures and policies for protecting business assets. Anything that consists of one or more buildings, rooms, or structures, which contain structural boundaries or separations themselves, can be considered complex. Disclaimer: we are not lawyers, accountants or financial advisors and the information in this article is for informational purposes only. Instead, these studies require a comprehensive understanding of real . "A grid based approach for fire and explosion consequence analysis." This is especially true when considering the premiums of insuring property that has a risk of a major event happening to it. For example, risk mitigation factors associated with a fire include functioning protection systems such as alarms, automatic sprinklers and portable fire extinguishers. Like all other estimates, the PML estimate is subject to several uncertainty factors. Measuring operational and reputational risk: a practitioner's approach. | Meaning, pronunciation, translations and examples it should be ignored for the EML calculation). It is often defined as the largest estimated loss arising from a single event, which was assessed with due care, taking into account all the elements of the risk. The difference between these two factors determines the maximum loss your business is likely to incur. 8.5 Determining Inventory on Hand. Historically, the term probable maximum loss (PML) has been used to describe building damageability in earthquakes, that is, the likelihood a building will experience . for more details. Tysers Dhaka Office Address and its Management. This strategy has a win rate of 50%. probable maximum loss PML. Water (Basel) 10(8): 1049. Methodology For Probable Maximum Loss Calculation And . Fire Fighting includes all public and private firefighting and the expectancy for it to arrive in time and be effective. No credit card required. .>Y|:gIhDVTd: e r4iWa^&Wdwpy~fE9pY3uLysf)7l~O568]=)DdlGga=% ).i1yrXd/\d< QhU^?e5&&Z0s-r2w2{(1)fEjQ{ D-& iq+9jC=JP6nWqy{OX7%)A\ %PDF-1.4 % Collecting and validating cost data with breakdown of different elements, including buildings, equipment and other contents. 800.419.4923 phone Explosions resulting from massive releases of flammable vapours or gases, commonly known as vapour cloud explosions. The PML value can be expressed either as the Scenario Expected Loss (SEL) or the Scenario Upper Loss (SUL). Structural Separation solely refers to the expectancy that the distance between structures, such as administrative buildings and storage, or free-standing firewalls, prevent the further growth of the fire. Based on historic market numbers, the investor chooses an assumed probable maximum loss for equities in the stock market. 17 Rigby Smith, C. K. A. M. P. I. I. o. L. (1995). The probable maximum loss (PML) is the maximum loss that an insurer is expected to lose on an insurance policy.
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