Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. Moving to Adam Wainwright, the 40-year-old moved into second in pitching WAR (again, as calculated by Baseball Reference) last season, and that is where he will stay. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. Hes racked up four seasons worth 67 WAR, plus a fifth at 5.7 and a sixth at 4.9; to improve that peak score substantially, he needs big seasons. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. No Gavin Lux -- big problem. Listen to the Seeing Red podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in your eyes? Hernandez also holds the distinction of having been the last MLB pitcher to throw a perfect game (2012). (Beltran) was frozen on an 0-2 Adam Wainwright curveball with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). His 195 career wins have him tied for 132nd all-time, and his career strikeouts currently have him sitting 71st all-time. Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. We didn't recognize that password reset code. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. Adam Wainwrights hybrid JAWS of 41.6 is a fair amount behind that of Dwight Gooden, and closing a 6.4 point gap is going to be a tall order. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. The contact rate against him on pitches in the strike zone last season 91 percent was the highest against him during his 17-season MLB career. The two-time NL Cy Young winner began his season by reeling off one of the most amazing runs of any pitcher in recent memory, posting an 0.50 ERA and 0.87 FIP through his first 12 starts. He is known for being a Baseball Player. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. Privacy Policy Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. Its early, its the process, hell be ready to go when its time to go. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. Adam's parents had a rocky marriage, and they split up when he was around seven years old. A couple of guys are sore but its OK, everything is fine, nothing to worry about, dont know why the media is making a fuss over this, were just being careful, just holding the pitcher back by a day to be on the safe side, hes looking great, hes getting his work in, theres no need to push it. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onSt. Louis Cardinals and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. But is 40-year-old Adam Wainwright starting for the visiting Cardinals against the Dodgers in the winner-take-all tilt also on his way to joining Scherzer in the Hall of Fame? Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. MILWAUKEE -- Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Even having covered the progress of 17 mid- and late-career players in these two installments, there are a handful who have posted JAWS gains that would fit on the leaderboards and about whom people have questions regarding their Hall progress. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? 2000-2023 Rogers Media. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images), Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season. Let's take a look at Flaherty. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Not an injury issue? Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. . Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. Me talking about it is going to inflame some people Hes not a Hall of Famer! Wainwright said. For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. Once Molina has been. Adam Wainwright K's McCormick. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Flaherty is calm. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. While he has never won a Cy Young Award, he was in the top 3 on four occasions. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). Will this happen? The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. Via his 10 All-Star selections, nine Gold Gloves, two World Series rings, and reputation for handling pitching staffs, Molinas already been anointed presumptive first-ballot honoree status. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. . He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. In the spirit of giving my readers what they want, heres a lightning round, where Ill keep things uncharacteristically brief. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). I highly doubt it. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Arizona Diamondbacks. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. He leads MLB in complete games this season at the age of 40, and is MLB's active leader in complete games with 27. While Pujols and Molina are guaranteed to enter the Hall of Fame, Wainwright's case is a tricky one to say the least. Waino certainly isn't a National Hall of Famer, but there is an argument for the Cardinals Hall of Fame for sure. That's an average of 174 innings per year. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. Chris Sale keeps getting better with age, and with the way hes ben mowing down hitters in a 2017 free agent year, hes going to earn a lucrative $200 million deal in the offseason.
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